When the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) released its annual 2021 Traffic Crash Facts report, we dove into the data to see what stories it could tell – and hopefully uncover some lessons we could use moving forward. Here’s what we found.
Six Surprising Takeaways From North Carolina’s 2021 Crash Facts
- While total crashes across the state increased 11.7% in 2021, injury and fatality crashes each rose by about 8%. However, Robeson County saw a 34% increase in fatal crashes, and Scotland and Edgecombe Counties both experienced at least twice as many fatal crashes in 2021.
- 5% of counties accounted for 26.1% of road fatalities. That’s an average of 5.22% of total road fatalities per county. The remaining 95 counties averaged 0.8% of the total. Put another way, you were about six times as likely to be in a fatal crash in Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, or Robeson County as anywhere else in the state.
- Crash severity was higher outside of denser population centers. For example, Wake County, the most populated county in 2021, was 7th in total crash rate, but 97th in fatal crash rate and 94th in crash severity. Graham County, which was the third least populated county in 2021, had the highest fatal crash rate and was 1st in crash severity.
- The deadliest county in North Carolina when population is factored in is Robeson County, with the 24th most residents (118, 836) but the 4th most fatalities (69). Robeson County has been North Carolina’s most dangerous for drivers since 2004. The county with the most crashes, injuries, and deaths – Mecklenburg – is ranked as the 42nd most dangerous by the NCDOT in 2021.
- Of counties with more than 20 fatalities, Scotland County had the largest 2021 increase by percentage, with fatalities rising nearly 222% over 2020.
- Graham County has the 84th highest total crash cost, but is the county with the highest average cost per crash and per 100,000 vehicle miles traveled, and is second highest in average cost per person.
The Most Dangerous Counties in North Carolina for Drivers
The NCDOT collects statistics about vehicle accidents, injuries, and fatalities and has created a ranking system that identifies the most dangerous and safest counties in North Carolina. Here are the county rankings from the NCDOT.
Top 5 Most Dangerous Counties in 2021 According to NCDOT
| Rank | County |
| 1 | Robeson |
| 2 | Scotland |
| 3 | Edgecombe |
| 4 | Vance |
| 5 | Hoke |
Many find it interesting that the most dangerous counties in North Carolina are not the most populous counties. Note: In order to provide the most current data, the population numbers used throughout this summary were sourced from the 2021 American Community Survey, unless otherwise noted.
Deadliest Counties by # of Fatalities in 2021
| Rank | Population | County | Crashes | Injury Crashes | Total Injuries | Fatalities | % Change vs 2020 |
| 1 | 1,100,984 | Mecklenburg | 36,425 | 10,462 | 16,964 | 138 | +10.4% |
| 2 | 1,112,883 | Wake | 30,105 | 7,555 | 11,729 | 102 | +15.9% |
| 3 | 537,113 | Guilford | 13,849 | 5,035 | 7,831 | 97 | +32.9% |
| 4 | 118,836 | Robeson | 4,431 | 1,208 | 1,991 | 69 | +30.2% |
| 5 | 333,582 | Cumberland | 7,542 | 2,201 | 3,428 | 60 | +3.4% |
It is perfectly logical to expect that there will be more fatalities in places with more people. However, when you analyze the data in the context of population, you begin to see a bigger picture and how dangerous roads in more rural counties can be.
Top 5 Deadliest Counties as a Percentage of Statewide Fatalities and Population
It is perfectly logical to expect that there will be more fatalities in places with more people. However, when you analyze the data in the context of population, you begin to see a bigger picture, and how dangerous roads in more rural counties can be.
| Fatalities | % of state | Population | % of state | |
| North Carolina | 1,783 | 100% | 10,367,033 | 100% |
| Mecklenburg | 138 | 7.7% | 1,100,984 | 10.6% |
| Wake | 102 | 5.7% | 1,112,883 | 10.7% |
| Guilford | 97 | 5.4% | 537,113 | 5.2% |
| Robeson | 69 | 3.9% | 118,836 | 1.1% |
| Cumberland | 30 | 3.4% | 333,582 | 3.2% |
The Safest Counties in North Carolina for Drivers
Just because a county is urban or rural does not necessarily classify it as dangerous. Even though rural roads tend to have a higher crash severity rate, they also tend to have fewer roads with fewer miles traveled.
As you can see, the safest counties in terms of traffic crashes, injuries, and fatalities are not the most populous.
Top 5 Safest Counties for Drivers According to the NCDOT
| 2021 Rank | County | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Hyde | 1 |
| 2 | Camden | 6 |
| 3 | Avery | 2 |
| 4 | Washington | 3 |
| 5 | Yancey | 13 |
Additional County Statistics of Interest
This is a quick and simple measurement that uses crash data to illustrate how often crashes are happening in a county. It is crucial to remember that the addition of time as a metric automatically adds weight to counties with higher populations and numbers of vehicle miles traveled.
Shortest Time to Next Crash
This is a quick and simple measurement that uses crash data to illustrate how often crashes are happening in a county. It is crucial to remember that the addition of time as a metric automatically adds weight to counties with higher populations and numbers of vehicle miles traveled.
Top 5 Counties With the Shortest Average Time to Next Crash
| 2021 Rank | County | Hours to Next Crash |
| 1 (tie) | Wake | 0.2 |
| 1 (tie) | Mecklenburg | 0.2 |
| 3 (tie) | Forsyth | 0.5 |
| 3 (tie) | Guilford | 0.5 |
| 5 | Durham | 0.6 |
Shortest Time to Next Injury
Here, the data diverges very little from population. These are, in some order, traditionally the most populated counties in North Carolina.
Top 5 Counties With the Shortest Average Time to Next Injury
| 2021 Rank | County | Hours to Next Injury |
| 1 | Mecklenburg | 0.5 |
| 2 | Wake | 0.7 |
| 3 | Guilford | 1.1 |
| 4 | Forsyth | 1.8 |
| 5 | Cumberland | 2.1 |
Shortest Time to Next Fatality
The grimmest of all statistics, still weighted by time toward counties with high populations, includes four of the state’s most populated counties. The lone outlier, Robeson County, is around 24th, according to the 2021 American Community Survey data.
Top 5 Counties With Shortest Average Time to Next Fatality
| 2021 Rank | County | Hours to Next Fatality |
| 1 | Mecklenburg | 72.0 |
| 2 | Wake | 95.9 |
| 3 | Guilford | 109.5 |
| 4 | Cumberland | 146.8 |
| 5 | Robeson | 154.6 |
Average Cost Per Crash: Injuries Cost More Than Vehicles
If you remove the time element and instead introduce cost, you begin to see that the severity of the crash matters more than the frequency. A fender bender has a relatively low cost in the grand scheme of things. A crash with multiple injuries or a fatality could end up costing millions in the final analysis.
Top 5 Counties With the Highest Average Cost per Crash
| 2021 Rank | County | Avg $/Crash | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Graham | $296,110 | 1 |
| 2 | Warren | $260,006 | 2 |
| 3 | Scotland | $245,267 | 12 |
| 4 | Gates | $218,889 | 8 |
| 5 | Currituck | $214,042 | 20 |
| All of NC | $96,571 |
Crash Severity Index: Where Are Crashes More Likely to Be Severe?
It’s not always easy to draw a conclusion from the data. Some of the safest overall counties have high crash severity indexes. The likelihood of a crash may be small, but the likelihood of that crash being severe may be quite high.
Top 5 Counties in Crash Severity Index**
| 2021 Rank | County | Severity Index | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Graham | 11.76 | 1 |
| 2 | Currituck | 7.40 | 4 |
| 3 | Warren | 6.85 | 3 |
| 4 | Swain | 6.83 | 2 |
| 5 | Gates | 6.35 | 14 |
**Numbers based on a three-year average of all reported crashes.
Injuries and Fatalities Versus Miles Traveled
Having a higher number of fatalities per vehicle miles traveled is a somewhat alarming statistic. It means that, on average, your county is more deadly than others over the same traveled distance. Bear in mind that counties with comparatively few miles traveled may actually be ranked quite high as the result of just a few fatal crashes. One deadly holiday weekend, for instance, could vault an otherwise quiet county to the top of the list.
Top 5 Counties in Fatalities per 100,000 Vehicle Miles Traveled
| 2021 Rank | County | Fatalities /100M VMT | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Graham | 3.92 | 1 |
| 2 | Hoke | 3.60 | 3 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3.38 | 27 |
| 4 | Warren | 2.70 | 5 |
| 5 | Bladen | 2.69 | 9 |
| All of NC | 1.17 |
Top 5 Counties in Non-Fatal Injury Crashes per 100,000 Vehicle Miles Traveled
| 2021 Rank | County | Non-Fatal Injury Crashes /100M VMT | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Pitt | 105.83 | 1 |
| 2 | Hoke | 93.55 | 2 |
| 3 | Edgecombe | 82.74 | 10 |
| 4 | Graham | 80.02 | 3 |
| 5 | Guilford | 79.54 | 5 |
| All of NC | 63.33 |
Looking at the data in the two tables above, both Hoke and Graham Counties appear on both lists. Drivers beware!
Injuries and Fatalities Versus Population
Population does not necessarily correlate to the possibility of a traffic injury or death. It does, however, offer a different perspective than statistics relating to vehicle miles traveled. Remember that not all miles driven in a county are driven by its residents, though that is a very difficult anomaly for which to correct. Note: these numbers use the NCDOT’s reference population totals.
Top 5 Counties in Crash Injuries per 1,000 People
| 2021 Rank | County | Crash Injuries/ 1,000 People | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Robeson | 18.36 | 3 |
| 2 | Anson | 18.08 | 2 |
| 3 | Pitt | 16.57 | 5 |
| 4 | Columbus | 16.23 | 7 |
| 5 | Mecklenburg | 16.11 | 1 |
| All of NC | 11.56 |
Top 5 Counties in Fatal Crashes per 1,000 People
| 2021 Rank | County | Fatal Crashes/ 1,000 People | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Northampton | 0.52 | 2 |
| 2 | Graham | 0.50 | 1 |
| 3 | Robeson | 0.49 | 3 |
| 4 | Scotland | 0.48 | 29 |
| 5 | Duplin | 0.48 | 10 |
| All of NC | 0.16 |
The obvious takeaway here is that the density of population may mean more crashes, it doesn’t necessarily mean those crashes will be severe, or the county is more dangerous. Mecklenburg County has a high number of crash injuries per 1,000 people. It’s annually one of the two most populous counties in the state.
Anson County, on the other hand, has the second-highest injury rate behind Robeson but is 76th in population. And as far as crash fatalities per 1,000 population, Mecklenburg ranks all the way down as 90th!
North Carolina’s Most Dangerous Cities and Towns for Drivers
While an abundance of data points are provided for North Carolina counties, there is not as much data for the state’s population centers.
The state’s city and town ranking criteria paint an interesting picture.
Top 5 Most Dangerous Cities (Population 10,000 or More)*
| 2021 Rank | City | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Greensboro | 2 |
| 2 | Lumberton | 3 |
| 3 | Charlotte | 1 |
| 4 | Burlington | 4 |
| 5 | Monroe | 12 |
* Based on All Reported Crashes from January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2021
Top 5 Most Dangerous Cities (Population Less Than 10,000)*
| 2021 Rank | City | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Whiteville | 1 |
| 2 | Wilkesboro | 7 |
| 3 | Walkerton | 3 |
| 4 | Kitty Hawk | 9 |
| 5 | Louisburg | 16 |
* Based on All Reported Crashes from January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2021
North Carolina’s Safest Cities and Towns for Drivers
On the opposite end of the spectrum, some cities and towns are safer for drivers. It’s important to note that the delineation of “10,000 population” is kinder to places under the number – the difference between small towns cannot be more than 10,000, whereas larger population centers may differ by hundreds of thousands.
Top 5 Safest Cities (Population 10,000 or More)*
| 2021 Rank | City | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Elon | 2 |
| 2 | Carrboro | 3 |
| 3 | Davidson | 1 |
| 4 | Havelock | 6 |
| 5 | Leland | 17 |
* Based on All Reported Crashes from January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2021
Top 5 Safest Cities (Population Less Than 10,000)*
| 2021 Rank | City | 2020 Rank |
| 1 | Pine Level | 6 |
| 2 | Walnut Creek | 8 |
| 3 | Pleasant Hill | 13 |
| 4 | Candor | 34 |
| 5 | Sawmills | 1 |
* Based on All Reported Crashes from January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2021
It’s important to note that, because the numbers of incidents are generally very small when determining the “safest” small town roads, a few incidents can result in a serious statistical shift. The #4 safest small town, Candor, rose 23 spots from the previous year.
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